Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,085$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,798.2}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43,798.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,474$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,395.6}{1 + 10^{-0.206 (t - 107.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,395.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,485$ on 2020-08-10

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $328,844$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{393,529.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(393,529.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,616$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,693.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 168.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,693.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,586$ on 2020-08-10

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $153,599$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(993 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,708.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(184,708.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,464$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(44.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,726.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 124.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,726.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,345$ on 2020-08-10

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,400$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,395.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.2)}}\) (asimptote \(73,395.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $482$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(66.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{447.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 62.6)}}\) (asimptote \(447.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,890$ on 2020-08-10

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,787$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,569.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(94,569.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $521$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{789.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(789.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,142$ on 2020-08-10

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,397$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,980.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 122.7)}}\) (asimptote \(48,980.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(174.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,025$ on 2020-08-10

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $289,947$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,740.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(315,740.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,199$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(150 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,584.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 98.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,584.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,270$ on 2020-08-10

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,722$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $613$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,032.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 138.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,032.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,111$ on 2020-08-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 91%
Pakistan recovered 84%
Oman recovered 78%
Sri Lanka recovered 72%
Azerbaijan recovered 71%
United Arab Emirates recovered 68%
Kuwait recovered 50%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 50%
Saudi Arabia recovered 47%
Kazakhstan recovered 26%
Uzbekistan recovered 15%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,906$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(303.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,977.0}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(83,977.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,689$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,672.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,672.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,970$ on 2020-08-10

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,660$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(143.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,708.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 22.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,708.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $305$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(283.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $626$ on 2020-08-10

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,262$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,778.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(111,778.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(12.3 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(190.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,081$ on 2020-08-10

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $284,660$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293,230.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(293,230.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,097$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,413.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,413.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,799$ on 2020-08-10